UPSC CURRENT AFFAIRS – 13th June 2025
Iran’s nuclear programme
Why in News?
Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites amid rising concerns over Iran’s uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels and breakdown of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Introduction
- Israel launched a military campaign targeting what it described as “dozens” of nuclear and military sites in Iran, amid increasing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme.
- These developments have unfolded even as talks were underway between the United States and Iran for a diplomatic resolution aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for lifting economic sanctions.
- This event marks one of the most serious escalations in the West Asian region in recent times.
Why is This Significant?
- First such Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear targets: Military officials claimed nuclear-related targets were hit, which indicates a shift from past operations targeting proxies or missile infrastructure to more core strategic assets.
- Heightened geopolitical tension: The strikes follow a critical resolution by the IAEA Board of Governors which found Iran in breach of the 1974 safeguards agreement, the first such breach noted since 2006.
- Implications for global non-proliferation regime and regional security architecture are severe, especially with potential U.S. military involvement in future escalations.
Background: Iran’s Nuclear Programme – In 7 Key Points
- Composition of Natural Uranium
- Natural uranium contains about 0.7% of the fissile isotope U-235 and 99.3% of U-238.
- For use in nuclear weapons, uranium must be enriched to 90% U-235 or more.
- Role of Centrifuges and SWUs
- Uranium enrichment is achieved using centrifuges, which separate U-235 from U-238.
- The effectiveness of enrichment is measured in Separative Work Units (SWUs).
- Around 250 SWUs are needed to produce 1 kg of weapons-grade uranium from natural uranium.
- Progress until 2012
- By 2006, Iran had achieved 3.5% enrichment.
- By 2010, uranium enriched to 19.75% was reported at Natanz and Fordow.
- These are significant thresholds, as higher enrichment gets Iran closer to weapons-grade material.
- The 2015 Nuclear Deal (JCPOA)
- Signed between Iran, P5+1 (U.S., UK, France, Russia, China, Germany), and the EU.
- Key commitments by Iran:
- Limit enrichment to 3.67%.
- Reduce operational centrifuges to 5,060 first-generation IR-1 machines.
- Cap enriched uranium stockpile at 300 kg.
- In exchange, Iran received sanctions relief and reintegration into the global economy.
- U.S. Withdrawal in 2018
- Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. unilaterally exited the JCPOA.
- Iran responded by scaling up enrichment, crossing previous thresholds.
- As of 2025, enrichment levels have reached 60%.
- Why 60% Enrichment is Critical
- The effort needed to move from 60% to 90% is much less than from 0.7% to 60%.
- This shortens the “breakout time” — the time required to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb — to just a few weeks or months.
- Weaponisation Timeline
- According to experts at Harvard University’s Belfer Center, Iran could build a functional weapon in under three weeks once it has 90% enriched uranium in gaseous form.
- This assumes capability in warhead design, missile integration, and miniaturisation.
Israel’s Position on Iran’s Nuclear Programme
- Israel views a nuclear-capable Iran as an existential threat.
- It has repeatedly warned that it will act unilaterally if needed.
- While never officially confirming, Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons and delivery systems (ballistic missiles, submarines, etc.).
- Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968, unlike Iran.
U.S. Stance and Role
- Despite President Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from JCPOA, he maintained that diplomacy was the preferred option, but also hinted at military options if talks failed.
- The U.S. has so far not directly supported Israeli strikes, but has signaled it could join if the conflict escalates.
- Senator Marco Rubio warned Iran not to retaliate against U.S. forces over the Israeli attack.
Global and Strategic Implications
1. Regional Instability
- Risk of full-blown war between Iran and Israel, dragging in Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Syria, and U.S. assets in Iraq and the Gulf.
2. Nuclear Proliferation Risk
- A military strike without diplomatic resolution may destroy monitoring channels and force Iran to go fully clandestine.
- Weakens the global nuclear non-proliferation architecture.
3. Global Oil and Economic Fallout
- Escalation in the Gulf region could severely affect global oil supplies, especially from the Strait of Hormuz.
4. Diplomatic Vacuum
- The JCPOA framework lies effectively in ruins.
- New diplomatic architecture will be needed — possibly including India, China, or neutral mediators.
India’s Standpoint
- India has traditionally supported a nuclear-weapons-free West Asia.
- It maintains strong relations with both Israel and Iran and advocates peaceful resolution via diplomacy.
- As a major oil importer, India is concerned about instability in the Gulf region.
Conclusion
- The Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure represent a dangerous shift from diplomacy to confrontation.
- While Iran’s nuclear capabilities have steadily grown, the absence of a binding agreement and increasing military posturing threaten not only regional security but also the global non-proliferation regime.
- The need of the hour is constructive diplomacy backed by transparent verification mechanisms to avoid a catastrophic conflict.
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Economic Implications
For Indian Exporters
- These reforms reduce transaction costs and compliance hurdles
- Encourage a more competitive and efficient export environment
- Promote value addition in key sectors like leather
For Tamil Nadu
- The reforms particularly benefit the state’s leather industry, a major contributor to employment and exports
- Boost the marketability of GI-tagged E.I. leather, enhancing rural and traditional industries
For Trade Policy
- These decisions indicate a shift from regulatory controls to policy facilitation
Reinforce the goals of Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat, and India’s ambition to become a leading export power
Recently, BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, claimed that India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
India’s rank as the world’s largest economy varies by measure—nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP)—each with key implications for economic analysis.
