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UPSC CURRENT AFFAIRS – 08th August 2025

Home / UPSC / Current Affairs / India’s “Goldilocks” Economy: A Critical Appraisal

India’s “Goldilocks” Economy: A Critical Appraisal

Why in News?

  • The Finance Ministry’s recent claim of a “Goldilocks” Indian economy is contested due to volatile food prices, stagnant real wages, rising inequality, and limited fiscal space.

Introduction

  • A few weeks ago, the Ministry of Finance described the Indian economy as being in a “Goldilocks situation” — a phase of moderate growth, subdued inflation, and supportive monetary conditions.
  • This sentiment was echoed by market analysts who pointed to a “mini-Goldilocks moment” marked by 6% GDP growth, stable corporate earnings, and peaking interest rates.
  • While the macroeconomic backdrop, with India exiting FY2024 as a $3.6 trillion economy, appears buoyant, a deeper examination reveals that beneath the surface lie structural vulnerabilities that challenge the notion of a universally beneficial equilibrium.

Understanding the “Goldilocks” Context

  • In economic terms, a Goldilocks situation refers to an economy that is not too hot (high inflation) and not too cold (low growth) — but just right. For India, the headline indicators suggest:
  • High GDP growth – over 7.6% in FY2024.
  • Headline inflation under control – CPI falling from 4.8% (May 2024) to 2.82% (May 2025).
  • Supportive monetary policy – stable interest rates.
  • However, these aggregates may mask distributional inequalities, volatile price trends, and fiscal constraints.

Inflation Dynamics: Beyond Headline Stability

1. Divergence between CPI and Food Inflation

  • While CPI declined within RBI’s comfort zone, the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) told a different story:
  • Oct 2024 – CPI: 6.21%, CFPI: 10.87%.
  • Aug 2024 – CPI: 3.65%, CFPI: 5.66%.
  • Given that food accounts for nearly 50% of household consumption — especially for lower-income groups — this volatility erodes purchasing power.

2. Impact on Households

Persistent high food inflation forces households to:

  • Cut dietary quality.
  • Reduce other essential spending.
  • Increase borrowing.
  • Even though CFPI fell to 99% by May 2025, the preceding spikes created uncertainty, complicating budgeting and savings.

3. Core Inflation Concerns

  • Economists like Pronab Sen argue that policy should focus on core inflation (excluding food and fuel), as it reflects sustained price pressures on housing, education, transport, and personal care — sectors critical to household budgets.

Real Wages and Purchasing Power: The “Silent Squeeze”

1. Gap between Nominal and Real Wages

  • 2023 – Nominal wage growth: 9.2%, Real wage growth: 2.5%.
  • 2020 – Nominal: 4.4%, Real: -0.4%.
  • 2025 projection – Nominal: 8.8%, Real: 4%.
  • Inflation erodes half the nominal salary gains, limiting improvement in living standards.

2. Sectoral Variations

  • Industries like IT services, manufacturing, and consumer goods often give lower-than-average hikes, deepening the gap for middle- and lower-income workers.

3. Household Impact

Reduced real wages:

  • Lower savings rates.
  • Curtail discretionary spending.
  • Increase dependence on consumer loans and credit cards.

Income Inequality: K-Shaped Recovery

  1. Gini Coefficient Trends
  • AY13: 0.489 → AY16: 0.435 → AY23 forecast: 0.402.
  • While the decline suggests improvement, taxable income data under-represents the informal sector, where inequality is often worse.

2. Post-Pandemic Divergence – K shaped recovery

  1. Social and Economic Risks

Persistent inequality:

  • Weakens social cohesion.
  • Limits access to quality education & healthcare.
  • Depresses long-term domestic demand.

Fiscal Space and Debt Concerns

1. Fiscal Deficit Trajectory

  • Government aims to reduce:
  • Fiscal deficit: 6.4% (2022–23) → 4.4% (2025–26 BE).
  • Revenue deficit: 4% → 1.5% in same period.
  • Primary deficit: 3% → 0.8%.

2. Risks of High Public Debt

  • Debt-to-GDP: ~81% (2022–23), above FRBM target of 60%.
  • High interest payments crowd out social and infrastructure spending.
  • Potential upward pressure on interest rates → private investment slowdown.

3. Implication for Citizens

  • Future risks include:
  • Reduced public expenditure on welfare.
  • Higher taxation to service debt.

Complicating the Goldilocks Narrative

  • While macro indicators present a stable outlook, four interlinked fragilities persist:
  • Volatile food inflation reducing purchasing power.
  • Stagnant real wages for the majority.
  • Persistent income inequality despite GDP growth.
  • Narrow fiscal space limiting social investment.
  • These factors mean that the “sweet spot” is not equally experienced across socio-economic strata.

Way Forward

Inflation Management Beyond Averages

  • Strengthen agri-supply chains to reduce food price volatility.
  • Targeted subsidies for vulnerable households during food price spikes.

 Boost Real Wage Growth

  • Labour-intensive manufacturing push.
  • Skill enhancement programmes linked to industry demand.

 Address Inequality

  • Expand formal sector job creation.
  • Progressive taxation and improved social safety nets.

Fiscal Prudence with Social Investment

  • Balance consolidation with growth-supportive spending.
  • Prioritise education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Conclusion

  • The “Goldilocks” description, while appealing, oversimplifies India’s macroeconomic reality. GDP growth and low headline inflation do not automatically translate into broad-based prosperity.
  • True economic equilibrium is achieved when real incomes rise, inequality narrows, inflation remains stable across essentials, and fiscal policy sustains growth without over-leveraging the future.
  • India’s challenge is not to preserve a fleeting “just right” macro moment but to build a durable foundation for inclusive, resilient, and equitable growth.

Introduction

Economic Implications

For Indian Exporters

  • These reforms reduce transaction costs and compliance hurdles
  • Encourage a more competitive and efficient export environment
  • Promote value addition in key sectors like leather

For Tamil Nadu

  • The reforms particularly benefit the state’s leather industry, a major contributor to employment and exports
  • Boost the marketability of GI-tagged E.I. leather, enhancing rural and traditional industries

For Trade Policy

  • These decisions indicate a shift from regulatory controls to policy facilitation

Reinforce the goals of Make in India, Atmanirbhar Bharat, and India’s ambition to become a leading export power

Recently, BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, claimed that India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). 

India’s rank as the world’s largest economy varies by measure—nominal GDP or purchasing power parity (PPP)—each with key implications for economic analysis.

Significance and Applications

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